CIA Analyst Shocker: Much of Trump Dossier "Crystal Clear, Certain, Consistent, and Corroborated"

Donald Trump has successfully scared away journalists from reporting on his "dossier" for a while now. But despite the outrageous allegations in the dossier, the CIA and FBI are continuing to use it as a guide to their investigations into the Trump/Russia scandal.

Now, a prominent former high-level CIA intelligence analyst is explaining why: he is calling the dossier credible, going so far as to say that a large part of it is "crystal clear, certain, consistent, and corroborated." That's very different from what Trump has been saying, and much more direct than has been reported in the media.

The analyst, John Sipher, goes through the dossier on a point by point basis, using the techniques intelligence officers are trained to use in order to make his conclusions. You can read the in depth story at Just Security, but below are the general points that Sipher makes.

How The Trump Dossier In Analyzed

According to Sipher, there are two main components in analyzing intelligence like what's in the dossier. The first step is to determine whether the source is credible. Sipher notes that Christopher Steele, who produced the dossier is well known in the intelligence world, and he has a stellar resume:

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Steele was the President of the Cambridge Union at university, and was a career British intelligence officer with service in Moscow, Paris and Afghanistan prior to work as the head of the Russia desk at British intelligence HQS. While in London he worked as the personal handler of Russian defector Alexander Litvinenko. He was a respected professional who had success in some of the most difficult intelligence environments. He retired from SIS in 2009 and started Orbis Business Intelligence along with a former colleague. Prior to his work on the Russian dossier for Orbis, he was best known for his investigation of the world soccer association (FIFA), which provided direct support to the FBI's successful corruption case. Steele and Orbis were also known for assisting various European countries in understanding Russian efforts to meddle in their affairs.

The second step in analyzing intelligence is to see if it has panned out over time... That is, whether things that the dossier predicted eventually came true.

Mr. Steele did not have the benefit of knowing Mr. Trump would win the election or how events might play out. In this regard, does any of the information we have learned since June 2016 assign greater or less credibility to the information? Were the people mentioned in the report real? Were their affiliations correct? Did any of the activities reported happen as predicted?

To a large extent, yes.

Sipher goes through each of the material allegations in the dossier, including the "pee tapes" and looks at whether they are consistent with other sources, and what is generally known at this time.

The general premise of the dossier -- how the Russians worked to sway the election -- "turned out to be stunningly accurate," said Sipher.

Sipher Isn't The Only One

Separately, a Russian official seemed to confirm the existence of intelligence/recordings of Trump on Russian state TV. Nikita Isaev, on a Russian TV channel, said that Russia should "hit Trump with our kompromat [a term for compromising intelligence information]." In a followup, he made it clear that he believ

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